WORRIED ABOUT SHARK ATTACKS OR TERRORISM? HERE’S HOW TO THINK ABOUT THE REAL RISK OF RARE EVENTS

March 30, 2017
Statistics is a useful tool for understanding the patterns in the world around us. But our intuition often lets us down when it comes to interpreting those patterns. In this series we look at some of the common mistakes we make and how to avoid them when thinking about statistics, probability and risk ...


RUNNING THE RISK: WHY EXPERIENCE MATTERS WHEN MAKING DECISIONS

November 7, 2014
This is the fourth article in a series, How we make decisions, which explores our decision-making processes. How well do we consider all factors involved in a decision, and what helps and what holds us ...



'NUDGING' PEOPLE TOWARDS CHANGING BEHAVIOUS: WHAT WORKS AND WHY (NOT)?

June 5, 2014
Earlier this week an impressive cast of academics, policy experts and business leaders gathered in Sydney at the inaugural Behavioural Exchange meeting to talk about “nudges”. Made famous by Richard Thaler …



UNCERTAINTY ISN'T CAUSE FOR THE CLIMATE COMPLACENCY - QUITE THE OPPOSITE

April 11, 2014
If we’re not certain that the problem’s there, then … we shouldn’t take actions which have a high severity the other way. This was the response from David Murray – then chairman of Australia’s Future Fund…



DOES THINKING ABOUT PROFESSORS MAKE YOU MORE INTELLIGENT?

May 15, 2013
What roles do unconscious influences play on your behaviour and decision-making? The answer might not be as simple as you think. Imagine I showed you a list of words one by one on a computer screen and…



EXPLAINER: WHAT IS INTUITION?

May 2, 2013
The word intuition is derived from the Latin intueor – to see; intuition is thus often invoked to explain how the mind can “see” answers to problems or decisions in the absence of explicit reasoning…



SCIENCE ALONE WON'T CHANGE CLIMATE OPINIONS, BUT IT MATTERS

November 28, 2012
Does scientific knowledge matter in the climate debate? Recent research suggests that it is not “what you know” but “who you are” that counts in making up your mind about climate change. What are the implications…



IF YOU WANT TO ROLL THE CLIMATE DICE, YOU SHOULD KNOW THE ODDS

April 17, 2012
Imagine a six-sided die with four red faces, one green face and one blue face. I am going to roll the die, and before rolling I will ask you to predict which colour it will land on: red, green or blue…



CLIMATE CHANGE, PERSONAL EXPERIENCE AND THE VAGARIES OF MEMORY

July 26, 2011
We see it in the media all the time. Regular beachgoers who see no evidence for sea-level rise, farmers trusting long-term experience over Bureau of Meteorology forecasting, Antarctic sea-captains whose…



WITHOUT UNDERSTANDING PSYCHOLOGY, CAN WE REALLY UNDERSTAND CLIMATE CHANGE?

March 28, 2011
Most of us don’t really understand climate change, and for some of us that means we can’t accept it. Sure, the evidence is compelling, but sadly humans aren’t always interested in evidence when it comes…







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