Judgement & Decision Making

I am interested in a range of topics broadly construed under the banner of judgment and decision making.

Multi-attribute judgment and choice

One area of research examines cognitive models of multi-attribute judgment and heuristic decision making. The special issue of Judgment and Decision Making co-edited with Arndt Bröder details some of this work and provides an overview of the field. One focus (in work with Michael Lee and Don van Ravenzwaaij) is on the application of evidence-accumulation models to multi-attribute judgment (e.g., Newell & Lee, 2011), and the development of hierarchical Bayesian methods for examining heuristic judgment (e.g., Lee & Newell, 2011; van Ravenzwaaij et al., 2014). More recent projects have attempted direct comparisons between evidence accumulation models (“the adjustable spanner”, Newell 2005) and “toolbox” models of multi-attribute choice – see Krefeld-Schwalb et al., 2018.

Choice under risk and uncertainty

Another strand of research focusses on choice under risk and uncertainty. We have examined a variety of topics such as the differences between experience and description based choice (e.g., Camilleri & Newell, 2011; 2013, in press) – see also a guest-edited (with Tim Rakow) special issue of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making on this topic. Related investigations have looked at people’s tendency to probability match in experience-based choice (e.g., Newell & Rakow, 2007; Newell et al., 2013) and how this tendency is affected by competition and group reasoning (see Schulze et al., 2015; 2017; Schulze & Newell, 2016; the impact of ‘extreme outcomes’ on experience-based risky choice e.g., Konstantinidis et al., 2018; the effect on experiencing outcomes on ambiguity aversion (e.g. Guney & Newell, 2011, 2015); and the relationship between risky choice and people’s understanding of the probabilities with which outcomes occur (Szollosi et al., in press).

Risky-Intertemporal Choice

In ongoing work with Ashley Luckman and Chris Donkin we have explored the cognitive processes underlying choices that involve both risk and delay (e.g., Luckman et al., 2017; 2018). Related work with Emmanouil Konstantinidis, Don van Ravenzwaaij and Sule Guney examined the potential for evidence accumulation models to capture risky-intemporal choices (Konstatinidis et al., 2018). Further work on this topic – including a large-scale comparison of models of risky-intertemporal choice (Luckman et al., under revision) is currently underway.

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